Monthly outlook

Our investment and economic outlook, July 2024

July 18, 2024

A line graph shows that unemployment and job-creation indicators don’t currently exhibit the inverse relationship associated with previous Sahm rule triggers. The data in the graph begin in 1978 and show that there have since been six periods where the Sahm rule had been satisfied. In each, the unemployment rate had spiked while the establishment survey reported significant declines in the number of jobs.

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